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Mumm's the Word: Who will win vs who should win on Oscar Night

4:51 PM, Feb 24, 2013   |    comments
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In the last hours before the Oscar ceremony, there are only two categories that people are really interested in.  Who will win and who should win.

Naturally, I have my thoughts in what has turned out to be a very interesting year with unexpected nominations and one glaring snub that may, in a certain sense, have played in that movie's favor.

BEST PICTURE

Who will win:  ARGO

Who should win:  ARGO

The glaring snub, of course, was leaving Ben Affleck's name off the nominated for Best Director list.  But as the awards season kicked in, he seemed to win everything else he possibly could win: the Golden Globes, Producer's Guild, SAG, even the Director's Guild. LINCOLN seemed the movie to beat in the early going, now it is definitely ARGO.

BEST DIRECTOR

Who will win: Steven Spielberg for LINCOLN

Who should win: Steven Spielberg for LINCOLN

Ben Affleck can't win, of course, since he wasn't nominated.  And while LINCOLN is not quite "history written with lightning" (as President Woodrow Wilson famously said of D.W. Griffith's BIRTH OF A NATION), it is history as compelling, poignant drama with a towering performance by Daniel Day-Lewis as LINCOLN.

An upset here could be Ang Lee for the mesmerizing LIFE OF PI.

BEST ACTRESS

Who will win: Jennifer Lawrence for SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

Who should win:  Jennifer Lawrence for SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

I know, I know, I should be backing our hometown entry in this race, Sacramento's Jessica Chastain for her performance in ZERO DARK THIRTY, but Jennifer Lawrence's quirky, troubled, lonely and resourceful character in SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK was just unmatched.

A surprise here could be Emmanuelle Riva for AMOUR.  At 85, she is the oldest Best Actress nominee ever (just as Quvenzhane Wallis at 9 for BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD is the youngest) and to top it off, Riva turns 86 on Oscar Night!

BEST ACTOR

Who will win:  Daniel Day-Lewis for LINCOLN

Who should win: Daniel Day-Lewis for LINCOLN

What can you say?  He's simply the most accomplished actor of his generation.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Who will win:  Robert De Niro for SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

Who should win: Robert De Niro for SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

Here's where SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK will partially get its due. A lot of pundits, however, see this one going to Tommy Lee Jones for LINCOLN.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Who will win:  Anne Hathaway for LES MISERABLES

Who should win: Anne Hathaway for LES MISERABLES

Director Tom Hooper's decision to have the actors sing "live" during their scenes was criticized in some circles as taking away from the music (LES MIZ is, after all, a musical).  However, it allowed them to make the songs more than just a musical comment on the action, but an integral part of some very dramatic performances, particularly the one by Anne Hathaway.  I have to admit, I have never really been a big Anne Hathaway fan, but after LES MISERABLES, I've changed my tune.

Ready to steal her thunder, however, is Sally Field for LINCOLN.

So put your list together and join us Sunday night for the Oscar telecast where we can compare notes and see just how right (or wrong) we were!

by Jonathan Mumm   jmumm@news10.net

 

News10/KXTV

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